November 8th California State Election Results
Governor: Incumbent Gavin Newsom (D) vs. Senator Brian Dahle (R)
Governor Newsom easily defeated Republican Senator Brian Dahle in a race that was never in doubt and where there was no real drama. 58%-42%
Other Constitutional Officers
Democrats Retain Control of Every Constitutional Office in a Statewide Sweep
Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Eleni Kounalakis (D) vs. Angela E. Underwood Jacobs (R) California’s first female Lieutenant Governor coasted to reelection 58%-42%.
Controller: Malia Cohen (D) vs. Lanhee Chen (R)
The Controller’s race this year was an open seat election as Betty Yee termed out of office after serving two terms (8 years). While Board of Equalization Member Malia Cohen got off to a slow start in the June primary, she defeated Lanhee Chen 54% - 46%.
Secretary of State: Incumbent Shirley Weber (D) vs. Rob Bernosky (R)
Incumbent Shirley Weber was appointed to the Secretary of State (SOS) office by Governor Newsom after former SOS Alex Padilla was appointed by Newsom to be United States Senator. Padilla replaced Vice President Kamala Harris when she was sworn into office in January 2021. Weber easily won her elected office giving her four more years 58%-42%.
Treasurer: Incumbent Fiona Ma (D) vs. Jack Guerrero (R)
After fighting off allegations of sexual harassment, current State Controller Fiona Ma defeated GOP CPA Jack Guerrero to become the next Treasurer 58%-42%.
Attorney General: Incumbent Rob Bonta (D) vs. Nathan Hochman (R)
AG Rob Bonta was appointed to this top state law enforcement job by Governor Newsom. Newsom made this appointment when President Biden tapped former AG Xavier Becerra to be his Secretary of the federal Department of Health and Human Services. Bonta cruised to win this seat in the race with Republican general counsel Nathan Hochman 58%-42%.
Insurance Commissioner: Incumbent Ricardo Lara (D) vs. Robert Howell (R).
Commissioner Ricardo Lara was criticized during his first year as insurance commissioner in 2019 for billing taxpayers for a Sacramento apartment while living in Los Angeles. He overcame this controversy (and more) and is headed to his second term defeating his Republican challenger 58%-42%.
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Former Assemblymember Tony Thurmond dispatched his Republican opponent Lance Christensen 63% - 37% to win a second four-year term as the State’s top educator.
Board of Equalization: No change in partisan make-up, three Democrats and one Republican.
Former Democrat State Assemblymember Sally Lieber ran in the District Two seat that opened up when Malia Cohen decided to run for State Controller. She will join Ted Gaines (R), Tony Vazquez (D) and Mike Schaefer (D). The fifth member of the BOE is the duly elected State Controller (Malia Cohen).
Legislature
At the time of writing this update, a considerable number of California State Assembly and Senate races are not yet sufficiently counted to declare a winner. Most races will be updated by the end of this week and winners and losers will be easily identified. Despite that, we can know with a high degree of certainty that the California Democrats have held onto their supermajority in the Senate and the Assembly. The practical effect of this supermajority is to make it harder to stop majority vote bills as well as tax and fee bills that have a 2/3 vote requirement. It also means the majority party in the Legislature can override a gubernatorial veto at will (almost never happens).
State Senate
Going into election night for the 40-Member State Senate, Democrats currently held a 31-9 super majority. All even-numbered Senate Districts were up for election in November. The odd-numbered Senate Districts are not on the ballot until 2024. Before the votes were even counted last night, we knew the Republicans lost a “safe” Republican seat in rural Northern California in Senate District 4. This happened when 8 Republicans ran in the June primary splitting the vote and allowing the top two vote-getters to be Democrats: a very embarrassing and costly mistake on the part of the minority party.
In a positive development for California Republicans, David Shepard (R) unseated incumbent Melissa Hurtado (D) in a southern San Joaquin Valley Senate seat District 16. Also notable, the Senate District 32 race was won by Kelly Seyarto (R) who successfully moved from two terms in the Assembly to the upper house winning his race by 18%.
In a very tight race, with 100% of precincts reporting, Republican Matt Gunderson trails Democrat Catherine Blakespear by only 1,200 or 0.6% in Senate District 38. This race is not called yet because of outstanding absentee and mail-in ballots that still need to be tabulated.
Unless Matt Gunderson makes a comeback as the final votes are tabulated, the Senate Republicans will end up with nine members and the Senate partisan split of 31-9; ironically, the same place from where they started. Two seats were missed opportunities for the Republicans.
State Assembly
Going into the November election, the 80-member Assembly had 60 Democrats, 19 Republicans, and 1 independent. There are still Assembly races too close to call including Districts 7, 27, and 71 but the final partisan split looks like it will be 61 Democrats and 19 Republicans. Democrats had a sizable number of “D on D” races due to low Republican registration numbers in some areas of the state.
A possible pickup for Republicans might be Assembly District 67 where Soo Yoo is leading incumbent Sharon Quirk-Silva by 371 votes with 100% of precincts reporting. The final outcome of their race will be clearer next week as outstanding ballots are processed.
Statewide Ballot Initiatives and Referenda
The seven propositions on the California ballot included proposed constitutional amendments, initiative statutes and a referendum. Record amounts of funds were spent by various business interests trying to convince voters to expand gambling in California and to overturn legislation that would prohibit the sale of flavored tobacco in the state. This trend is likely to continue as the business community faces a more hostile legislative environment. Business may look to the initiative process to get relief in policy changes they cannot get in Sacramento.
|
Proposition |
Description |
Status |
|
1 |
Amends the CA
Constitution to prohibit the state from denying or interfering with an
individual's reproductive freedom including their right to choose to have an
abortion. |
Passed
65%-35% |
|
26 |
Allows In-Person
Roulette, Dice Games, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands. Initiative
Constitutional Amendment and Statute. |
Failed
70%-30% |
|
27 |
Allows Online and Mobile Sports Wagering Outside Tribal Lands.
Initiative Constitutional Amendment and Statute. |
Failed
83%-17% |
|
28 |
Provides Additional
Funding for Arts and Music Education in Public Schools. Initiative Statute. |
Passed
63%-38% |
|
29 |
Requires On-Site Licensed Medical Professional at Kidney
Dialysis Clinics and Establishes Other State Requirements. Initiative Statute |
Failed |
|
30 |
Provides Funding for Programs to Reduce Air Pollution and
Prevent Wildfires by Increasing Tax on Personal Income Over $2 Million.
Initiative Statute. |
Failed
59%-41% |
|
31 |
Referendum On 2020 Law That Would Prohibit the Retail Sale of
Certain Flavored Tobacco Products. |
Approved |
Congressional Races
U.S. Senate: As of the election, there were 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two independents (who caucus with Democrats) with Vice President Harris giving the razor-thin majority to the Democrats with her tie-breaking vote. In 2022, there was one California U.S. Senate seat up for election. Senator Padilla, who vacated his California Secretary of State seat when he was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor Newsom, easily won a six-year term by besting Mark P. Meuser, a Republican constitutional attorney 59%-41%.
As of the writing of this report, the partisan split of the United States Senate is 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats. There are still three seats that are too close to call and the outcome of those races will determine whether the Republicans or the Democrats hold United States Senate majority. The Democrats need to win two out of three of those seats to hold their majority because Vice President Kamala Harris provides the 51st vote in case of a tie. On the other hand, if the Republicans win two out of those three seats, they will hold the majority. The outstanding races still being tabulated to determine the winner are Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia (which may require a runoff).
U.S. House of Representatives: All 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats were up for election. Going into the election night, Democrats held a majority with 221 seats, compared to 213
Republicans. There was one vacancy. Nationally, Republicans need to flip a net 5 seats from blue to red to gain control of the House. As of November 9th, it looks like Republicans will be successful in gaining the majority, but there are a number of races across the country so close the outcomes cannot be determined now and may require several days or weeks to finally tabulate. That said, we expect the Republicans to have a working majority of 218 to 223 seats.
Of special note, Assemblymember Kevin Kiley successfully navigated his race and won a seat in the “new” Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Another notable race is CA 13 where a fourth-generation farmer from Stanislaus County, Republican John Duarte, was behind election night but now is holding a thin lead of 203 votes over Democrat Assemblyman Adam Gray. This race’s outcome will take some time to finalize and directly impacts the Republicans’ ability to capture the majority.
In CA 22, veteran Assembly Democrat Rudy Salas challenged incumbent Republican David Valadao who bested him with a 54%-46% win.
In CA 27, Incumbent Mike Garcia had a rematch from 2020 with former Assemblywoman Christy Smith which was a very close race. This year Garcia won easily 58%-42%.
In CA 47, former Assembly Republican leader, Scott Baugh, is behind Democrat Katie Porter by a thin margin of 938 votes. This race’s outcome will take some time to finalize and directly impacts the Republican’s ability to capture the majority.
In CA 49, Democrat Mike Levin leads Republican Brian Maryott 51%-49% with about a 4,000-vote spread. This race is still not decided but looks like it will go to Levin.