UPDATE: November 5th California State Election Results
Greatest Political Comeback in United States History
In the most spectacular political comeback in over 132 years, Donald J. Trump has been re-elected president and will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States of America. You have to go all the way back to 1892 when Grover Cleveland accomplished the same, being re-elected to non-consecutive terms for the office of President. With the entire mainstream media structure in the United States against him, with multiple lawsuits trying to bankrupt him, with criminal complaints trying to put him in prison, and assassins trying to kill him, Donald J. Trump persevered and won in an historic landslide winning the popular vote by 2.5 million votes, and an electoral college win of 312 to 226 electoral votes. He swept all swing states and increased his vote margins in practically every county in the entire country. In California, Trump increased his vote percentage in all 58 counties in the state flipping a number of formerly “blue” counties to “red.” Statewide, Trump carried 38% of the vote up from the low 20’s in 2020. Simply amazing.
Statewide Constitutional Offices
There were no constitutional officer positions on the November ballot.
Legislature
On November 5th, 2024, all 80 seats in the California Assembly and 20 of the 40 seats in the Senate were up for reelection. Going into the election the Democrats held 62 of the 80 Assembly seats and Republicans 17 with one vacant Republican leaning seat. The California Senate had 31 Democrats and nine Republicans. Super majorities still exist in both houses.
At the time of this update, practically all California State Assembly and Senate races are sufficiently counted to declare winners and losers. It was a good night for California Republicans. The Assembly Republicans have picked up a net of two seats with the new partisan split being 60 Democrats and 20 Republicans. Senate Republicans have picked up a net one additional seat for a partisan split of 30 Democrat Senators to 10 Republicans. However, the California Democrats have held onto their super majority in both the Senate and the Assembly. The practical effect of this super majority is to make it harder to stop majority vote bills as well as tax and fee bills that have a 2/3 vote requirement. It also means the majority party in the Legislature can override a gubernatorial veto at will (almost never happens).
State Senate
Going into election night for the 40-member State Senate, Democrats held a 31-9 super majority. All odd-numbered Senate Districts were up for election in November. The even-numbered Senate Districts are not on the ballot until 2026. In Senate District 4, Senator Alvarado-Gil had been elected in 2022 as a Democrat in a very conservative district after the Republicans ran too many candidates, and the top two vote getters were both Democrats. In the summer of 2024, Senator Alvarado-Gil changed party affiliation and joined the Senate Republican Caucus. She was the first legislator to change parties since Brian Maienschein switched from the Republican to the Democrat party in 2019.
Senate Republicans appear to have netted one pick up in Senate District 37. Former Republican Assemblyman Steven Choi of Irvine appears to have beat incumbent Democrat Josh Newman in a purple, Orange County District with 100% of precincts reporting and Choi maintaining a 7,000-vote lead. This is down from an 11,000 vote lead last week. There does not appear to be enough ballots left for Newman to make up the difference but he has not conceded the race yet.
Significant Senate race outcomes include:
Senate District 37 flips from blue to red as Choi appears to have defeated Newman by 7,000 votes. Mr. Choi was helped in this effort by a late $750,000 independent expenditure campaign funded by the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) who were upset with Senator Newman holding a union-friendly bill in his education committee earlier this year. AFSCME wanted to set an example warning other Democrats not to cross them. Hardball politics here.
Suzette Martinez Valladares (R) was successful holding Senate District 23. This seat is being vacated by termed-out Scott Wilk and Valladares is 17,000 votes ahead with 100% reporting.
Senator Ochoa Bogh (R) held her seat with a 14,000-vote lead with 100% of precincts reporting.
Assemblyman Tim Grayson has successfully moved up to the Senate with a 23,000-vote lead with 100% of precincts reporting.
Democrat Jerry McNerney beat Republican Jim Shoemaker in a Central Valley seat being vacated by Susan Talamantes-Eggman. This race was close but McNerney prevailed by over 10,000 votes.
Assemblywoman Megan Dahle (R) has succeeded in moving up to the Senate by winning her term-limited husband’s Senate District 1 seat.
State Assembly
Going into the November election, the 80-member Assembly had 62 Democrats, 17 Republicans, and one independent. Assembly Republicans picked up a net of two seats with the final partisan split 60 Democrats and 20 Republicans. Democrats had a sizable number of “D on D” races due to low Republican registration numbers in some areas of the state and several are quite close with votes still being counted. The two pickups for Republicans are Assembly District 36 and Assembly District 58.
Significant Assembly race outcomes include:
Josh Hoover (R) who was heavily targeted by the Democrats held his seat in District 7 with a 15,000-vote lead and 100% reporting.
In a seat being vacated by termed out Assemblyman Jim Patterson (R), David Tangipa (Patterson’s hand-picked choice) defeated former Republican Congressman George Radanovich by 15,000 votes with 100% reporting.
Republican Vince Fong won BOTH his Assembly seat and congressional seat in the Central Valley. Fong will be sworn in, again, as a member of Congress, forsake his Assembly seat, and that seat will need to be filled by a special election called by the Governor.
In a Republican pick up, Jeff Gonzalez has flipped Assembly District 36 currently held by the termed-out Democrat Eduardo Garcia. Jeff has a 4,600-vote lead over his Democrat opponent, Jose Acuna, with 100% reporting.
Despite a very tough race, Republicans held Assembly District 47 where incumbent Greg Wallis is 5,000 votes ahead of Democrat challenger Christy Holstege with 100% of the precincts reporting.
In another possible Republican pick up, Leticia Castillo is 500 votes ahead of her Democrat challenger, Clarissa Cervantes, with 100% of precincts reporting. Cervantes is the sister of Sabrina Cervantes who vacated this seat to run for the State Senate successfully.
Statewide Ballot Initiatives and Referenda
This election determined the fate of 10 propositions — including whether to borrow a combined $20 billion for climate programs and school construction, whether to approve three amendments to the state constitution and what direction to take on crime, health care and taxes. The ten propositions on the California ballot included proposed constitutional amendments and initiative statutes.
Record amounts of funds were spent by various business and labor interests trying to convince voters
to approve more general obligation bonds for schools and the environment, make it easier to raise taxes, raise the minimum wage, and reform criminal justice system changes made by Proposition 47 in 2014. This trend of multiple propositions on the ballot is likely to continue as the business community has faced a more hostile legislative environment. Business may look to the initiative process to get relief in policy changes they cannot get in Sacramento. The final outcomes are as follows:
|
Proposition |
Description |
Status |
|
2 |
Proposition
2 would provide $8.5 billion to K-12 schools and $1.5 billion to
community colleges to renovate, fix and construct facilities. The money would
be distributed through matching grants, with the state paying a greater share
of costs for less affluent districts and those with higher numbers of English
learners and foster youth. Some of the money would be set aside for removing leads
from water, creating transitional kindergarten classrooms, and building
career and technical education facilities. |
Passed
59%-41% |
|
3 |
Proposition
3 would enshrine the right to same-sex marriage into the California
constitution, repealing Proposition 8 — a measure approved by voters in 2008
that defined marriage as between a man and a woman. In practice, the ballot measure
would not change who can marry. |
Passed
63%-37% |
|
4 |
This
bond issue would allow the state to borrow $3.8 billion for drinking
water and groundwater programs, $1.5 billion for wildfire and forest programs
and $1.2 billion for sea level rise. In part, the money would offset some
budget cuts. |
Passed
60%-40% |
|
5 |
Proposition
5 would amend the California constitution by lowering the required
threshold to 55% for any borrowing to fund affordable housing construction,
down payment assistance programs and a host of “public infrastructure”
projects, including those for water management, local hospitals and police
stations, broadband networks, and parks. |
Failed
45%-55% |
|
6 |
Proposition
6 changes the Constitution to ban involuntary servitude as a punishment for
crime. It also bans state prisons from disciplining people who refuse to
work. However, Proposition 6 states it does not stop prisons from giving
people time credits for working. |
Failed
47%-53% |
|
32 |
This
initiative would raise the overall minimum wage from $16 an hour and
adjust it for inflation, fast food workers received a $20 an hour minimum on
April 1 and health care workers will eventually get $25, though not until at
least Oct. 15. |
Failed
49%-51% |
|
33 |
This
is the latest attempt to roll back a state law that generally prevents
cities and counties from limiting rents in properties first occupied after
Feb. 1, 1995. |
Failed
40%-60% |
|
34 |
Proposition
34 would require some California providers to spend at least 98% of
their net drug sale revenue on “direct patient care.” Providers that do not risk having
their state license and tax-exempt status revoked and losing out on
government contracts. |
Passed
51%-49% |
|
35 |
This
initiative is sponsored by California’s health care industry to raise
more money for Medi-Cal and block lawmakers from using the cash to avoid cuts
to other programs. The tax is set to expire in 2026. |
Passed
68%-32% |
|
36 |
This
measure — supported by Republicans and law enforcement but opposed by
Gov. Gavin Newsom and most Democrats — may be the most contentious on the
ballot. It would partly roll back Proposition 47, approved by voters in 2014,
that turned some felonies into misdemeanors. |
Passed
69%-31% |
Congressional Races
U.S. Senate: As of the election, there were 47 Democrats, four independents (who caucus with the Dems) and 49 Republicans giving partisan control to the Democrats. Republicans picked up a net of 4 seats giving them control over the U.S. Senate 53-47. In 2024, one open California U.S. Senate seat was up for election where Adam Schiff easily defeated former L.A. Dodger Steve Garvey 59%-40%.
U.S. House of Representatives: All 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats were up for election.
Democrats had high hopes of flipping five Republican seats in an effort to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. However, the Democrats failed to flip the necessary Republican congressional seats giving the Republicans control over the House with 220-213 majority with two more races still to be decided. It seems clear that President Trump’s 2024 historic vote totals compared to 2016 and 2020 have helped Republicans in tight races across the county. We expect the Republicans to have a working majority of 221 to 214 seats.
Going into the election night, Republicans held a majority with 220 seats, compared to 213 for the Democrats, and three vacancies. Nationally, Democrats needed to flip a net five seats from red to blue to gain control of the House. As of November 6th, it looks like Republicans will be successful in maintaining the majority, but there are a number of races across the country so close the outcomes cannot be determined now and may require several days or weeks to finally tabulate. That said, we expect the Republicans to have a working majority of 222 to 225 seats.
Of special note, Assemblymembers Laura Friedman and Luz Rivas won their races for Congress while Assemblyman Evan Low lost to former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo.
Significant Congressional race outcomes include:
In CD #45, incumbent Republican Michelle Steel trails Derek Tran by 314 votes and this race is still too close to call. This race should be determined one way or another by the end of the week. It certainly will be done before Next week’s Thanksgiving Holiday. If successful, this is a flip from red to blue narrowing the already slim Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Democrat Josh Harder beat Republican Kevin Lincoln by 9,000 votes in the San Joaquin Valley seat with 100% of precincts reporting.
Republican John Duarte, a fourth-generation farmer from Stanislaus County, faced a repeat contest with valley Democrat and former Assemblyman Adam Gray. Duarte beat Adam Gray by 2,000 votes with 100% of the precincts reporting.
Vince Fong won his regular congressional seat and will decline being sworn into the Assembly seat he also won simultaneously in the San Joaquin Valley.
In a close Fresno Central Valley race with Republican Michael Maher, Democrat Jim Costa has prevailed leading by 9,000 votes with 100% of precincts reporting.
Incumbent Republican Ken Calvert beat challenger Will Rollins with an 11,000-vote lead with all precincts reporting.
Republican Scott Baugh lost to Democrat State Senator Dave Min by over 9,000 votes in an open seat in purple Orange County with all precincts reporting.